According to recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the ratio of trade deficits in commodities and services increased by 4.9 percent in September to $61.5 billion, exceeding the $59.8 billion expected by economists. This growth is mainly due to strong U.S. consumer demand for foreign goods, especially the deficit in Chinese trade. Nevertheless, the U.S. trade deficit remains at a low in three years and this year’s increase is expected to be the lowest since 2020.

According to statistics, in February 2022, U.S. imports reached a record high, while exports also reached the highest level in more than a year.This data reflects the explosion of the U.S. job market and low unemployment rates, leading to the continued increase of U.S. consumer demand for foreign-made goods, such as mobile phones and cars.

In addition, the increase in U.S. imports also reflects the growth in demand for capital goods such as consumer goods and computer parts.In September, U.S. commodity trade deficits with China increased slightly, but there was little change over the past year.

The adjusted data after inflation showed that the U.S. commodity trade deficit expanded to $86.5 billion in September. At the same time, the U.S. tourism industry performed well in September, with foreign tourist spending in the U.S. reaching its highest level since the end of 2019, while U.S. tourism spending is also close to its record high.

Economist Rubeela Farooqi predicts that net exports in the fourth quarter will contribute slightly to the economy, but trade prospects remain unclear and will depend on domestic and international demand and growth trends.

It is worth noting that U.S. companies seem to have ended inventory adjustments. According to the latest monthly logistics manager index (LMI), the five-month consecutive inventory contraction turned into expansion in October. This could mean that the commodity bubble that plagued the economy in 2022 has disappeared and enterprises are ready to start rebuilding inventories.

Despite signs of good exports, the U.S. and global economies still face many challenges in the last three months of this year. Consumer spending is expected to slow down as the labor market warms.In addition, the smooth performance of overseas economies and the risks of economic recessions in some countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom may affect foreign demand for U.S. products.

Recent series of macroeconomic data also showed this trend.In October, the growth of non-agricultural employment in the U.S. slowed above expectation and unemployment rose.At the same time, the service industry index fell to a five-month low, showing weak business activity and a slowing recruitment rate.In addition, consumer confidence fell unexpectedly dramatically and inflation was expected to surge, indicating that high commodity prices are affecting consumer living standards.